Tag Archives: Robert Prechter

10 Years Ago Today: Prechter’s Conquer the Crash Is Published. Read 8 Chapters Free Now

We’re sharing 8 Conquer the Crash chapters FREE to celebrate!
June 25, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

In June of 2002, the notorious dot.com bust was making way for a powerful housing boom, the European Union was growing, and American involvement in the Middle East promised a “quick and easy victory.”

Yet when EWI President Robert Prechter’s first edition of Conquer the Crash published ten years ago on this date, he wrote:

  • “Home equity loans are brewing a terrible disaster.”
  • “What screams bubble — giant historic bubble — in real estate is the system-wide extension of massive amount of credit.”
  • “The Middle East should be a complete disaster.”
  • “Look for nations and states to split and shrink.”

Today, 10 years later, the U.S. housing market still hasn’t overcome its worst downturn since the Great Depression; the eurozone is in crisis, and the expected quick victory in Iraq became a drawn-out mess.

Prechter’s analysis — based on the Elliott Wave Principle and socionomics, the study of how social mood motivates social actions — enabled him to foresee these changes in the economic, social, and political landscape.

What other eye-opening forecasts do the pages of the Conquer the Crash reveal? How about:

Banks: “Banks are not just lent to the hilt, they’re past it. In a fearful market, liquidity even on these so called ‘securities’ [corporate, municipal, and mortgage-backed bonds] will dry up.” (Remember the 2007-2009 “liquidity crisis”?)

Bonds: “The unprecedented mass of vulnerable bonds extant today is on the verge of a waterfall of downgrading.” (Remember the 2011 downgrade of the U.S. Treasury bonds?)

Credit: Credit expansion schemes — the primary role of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank — “have always ended in a bust.” (Again, think back to the “credit crunch.”)

And — “Like the discomfort of drug addiction withdrawal, the discomfort of credit addiction withdrawal cannot be avoided.” (You could say that again.)

Anticipating “shocks” to the global system is a remarkable and true, decade-long achievement of Prechter’s Conquer the Crash. And on the 10th anniversary of its publication, we’d like to offer you 42 pages of excerpted material to commemorate Prechter’s work.


Take advantage of this FREE, 8-lesson report that can help you prepare your financial future. You’ll get valuable lessons on:

  • What to do with your pension plan
  • What to do if you run a business
  • How to handle calling in loans and paying off debt
  • And so much more

Get Your FREE 8-Lesson “Conquer the Crash Collection” Now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline 10 Years Ago Today: Prechter’s Conquer the Crash Is Published. Read 8 Chapters Free Now. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

What Most People Don’t Realize About The Federal Reserve’s Superpowers

Bob Prechter’s Conquer The Crash reveals whether the Fed really can rescue the US economy

By Elliott Wave International

Since its creation in 1913, the primary intended role of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank has been that of protector. In theory, the central bank was bestowed with the power to shape monetary policy in a way that would keep both booms and busts in check. The two main tools at its disposal — interest rates and money creation — would provide a “ceiling of normalcy” above expansions AND a “net of safety” below contractions.

To this day, the financial mainstream holds great faith in the Fed’s ability to fulfill its save-the-day duties — as these recent news items make plain:

  • “Why Raising Fed Funds Rate Is Positive For Equities.” (Seeking Alpha)
  • “Fed’s Moves Lift All Asset Classes.” (Associated Press)
  • “US Stocks Erasing Losses: The aggressive moves of the Fed have been an important driver for the stabilization of stock prices.” (Bloomberg)

But of all the variables the Fed creators took into account, there’s one glaring factor they neglected to consider: Namely, it cannot force consumers to spend, creditors to lend, or businesses to borrow. The events of 2007-2009 “credit crunch” and the subsequent “Great Recession” made that obvious. Remember how the government was upset at banks for sitting on the bailout funds instead of lending them out to consumers? And consumers weren’t exactly lining up on the street to get a loan, either.

The Fed’s inability to change social mood is the central theme in Chapter 13 of EWI President Bob Prechter’s NY Times business bestseller book Conquer the Crash. There, Bob describes the Fed’s strategy of lowering the federal funds rate to stimulate spending to be as effective as “pushing on a string.” Writes Bob:

“The primary basis for today’s belief in perpetual prosperity and inflation with an occasional recession is what I call the ‘Potent Directors Fallacy.’ It is nearly impossible to find a treatise on macroeconomics today that does not assert or assume that the Federal Reserve Board has learned to control both our money and our economy. Many believe that it also possesses the immense power to manipulate the stock market. The very idea that it can do these things is false.”

And so begins one of the most groundbreaking studies into the very real INABILITY of the Fed to fell the great bears of economic declines, or to feed the great bulls of economic vigor.

The best part is, you can read Chapter 13 of Conquer the Crash in its entirety FREE via a Club EWI resource “You Can Survive And Prosper In A Deflationary Depression.” The free report also includes SEVEN other chapters of Conquer the Crash that shed equal light on some of the most misleading notions of mainstream economic wisdom.

Don’t stay in the dark. Read all 8 chapters today by joining the rapidly expanding free Club EWI community today. Here’s what you’ll learn:

  • Chapter 10: Money, Credit and the Federal Reserve Banking System
  • Chapter 13: Can the Fed Stop Deflation?
  • Chapter 23: What To Do With Your Pension Plan
  • Chapter 28: How to Identify a Safe Haven
  • Chapter 29: Calling in Loans and Paying off Debt
  • Chapter 30: What You Should Do If You Run a Business
  • Chapter 32: Should You Rely on Government to Protect You?
  • Chapter 33: A Short List of Imperative “Do’s” and Crucial “Don’ts”

Keep reading this free report now — all you need to do is create a free Club EWI profile.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Basic Wave Patterns: How a Zigzag Differs from a Flat. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

The Economic Crisis No One Saw Coming: A Convenient Untruth

The Economic Crisis No One Saw Coming: A Convenient Untruth

August 9, 2010

By Elliott Wave International

The single most convenient untruth about the 2008 (and counting)
financial crisis is that it was unforeseen. For two years policymakers
have insisted “There was no way to know ahead of time” that
the liquidity boom would come to a screeching halt. Back in November
2008, in fact, the usually tight-lipped Queen of England herself
publicly described the turmoil of international markets as “awful” and
openly asked a panel of experts from the London School of Economics “Why
did nobody notice?

Her Majesty is right: Most financial authorities did
NOT notice the crisis before it was too late. Comedy Central’s “The
Daily Show with Jon Stewart” of all places provided the
most poignant evidence: A March 2009 video montage
shows executives and economists from the world’s leading financial
firms repeatedly forecasting continued upside strength in stocks,
plus renewed bull market growth in financials — right as debt
markets came unhinged and the US stock market headed into a 50%-plus
selloff.

Dubbed the “8-Minute Rap” (after the “18-Minute
Gap” of Nixon’s Watergate tapes), the Daily Show video feature
sent an equally powerful message, as the clip
below makes plain
.

Yet even as the mainstream authorities failed to detect the
economic earthquake moving below their own feet, somebody did “notice” well
in advance. That person was EWI’s president Bob Prechter.

The clip below is from a 2007 Bloomberg interview.
Clear as PLAY, the foreseeable nature of the crisis emerges from
Bob’s October 19, 2007 interview.

As the historic trend change began to unfold, Bob issued this
timely insight:

“We’ve seen the first crack in the credit structure
with a huge drop in commercial paper… These are the harbingers
of a change toward the downside for the stock market, commodities
including oil, and the debt market itself.”

Don’t believe the convenient untruths. Get objective market
analysis today. Download
this free report that contains valuable market forecasts directly
from the desk of Bob Prechter.

This
article, The Economic Crisis No One Saw Coming: A Convenient Untruth, was syndicated by Elliott Wave International. EWI
is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff
of full-time analysts lead by Chartered Market Technician Robert
Prechter
provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional
and private investors around the world.

Deflation: First Step, Understand It

There is still time to prepare if deflation is indeed in our future.

By Elliott Wave International

“Fed’s Bullard Raises Specter of Japanese-Style Deflation,” read a July 29 Washington Post headline.

When the St. Louis Fed Chief speaks, people listen. Now that deflation — something that EWI’s president Robert Prechter has been warning about for several years — is making mainstream news headlines, is it too late to prepare?

It’s not too late.

There are still steps you can take if deflation is indeed in our future. The first step is to understand what it is. So we’ve put together a special, free, 60-page Club EWI resource, “The Guide to Understanding Deflation: Robert Prechter’s most important warnings about deflation.” Enjoy this quick excerpt. (For details on how to read this important report free, look below.)

When Does Deflation Occur?
By Robert Prechter

To understand inflation and deflation, we have to understand the terms money and credit.

Money is a socially accepted medium of exchange, value storage and final payment; credit may be summarized as a right to access money. In today’s economy, most credit is lent, so people often use the terms “credit” and “debt” interchangeably, as money lent by one entity is simultaneously money borrowed by another.

Deflation requires a precondition: a major societal buildup in the extension of credit (and its flip side, the assumption of debt). Austrian economists Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek warned of the consequences of credit expansion, as have a handful of other economists, who today are mostly ignored. Bank credit and Elliott wave expert Hamilton Bolton, in a 1957 letter, summarized his observations this way:

In reading a history of major depressions in the U.S. from 1830 on, I was impressed with the following:
(a) All were set off by a deflation of excess credit. This was the one factor in common.
(b) Sometimes the excess-of-credit situation seemed to last years before the bubble broke.
(c) Some outside event, such as a major failure, brought the thing to a head, but the signs were visible many months, and in some cases years, in advance.
(d) None was ever quite like the last, so that the public was always fooled thereby.
(e) Some panics occurred under great government surpluses of revenue (1837, for instance) and some under great government deficits.

Near the end of a major expansion, few creditors expect default, which is why they lend freely to weak borrowers. Few borrowers expect their fortunes to change, which is why they borrow freely. The psychological aspect of deflation and depression cannot be overstated. …

Read the rest of this important 60-page Robert Prechter’s report online now, free! Here’s what else you’ll learn:

  • What Makes Deflation Likely Today?
  • How Big a Deflation?
  • Why Falling Interest Rates in This Environment Will Be Bearish
  • Myth: “Deflation Will Cause a Run on the Dollar, Which Will Make Prices Rise”
  • Myth: “Debt Is Not as High as It Seems”
  • Myth: “War Will Bail Out the Economy”
  • Myth: “The Fed Will Stop Deflation”

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Deflation: First Step, Understand It. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts lead by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Valuable Investment eBook Free Until Jan 12

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Greetings investor,

Our friends over at Elliott Wave International have informed us that their brand-new Market Myths Exposed eBook will still be available free until January 12.  The 33-page eBook takes the 10 most dangerous investment myths head on and exposes the truth about each in a way every investor can understand.

You will uncover important myths about diversifying your portfolio, the safety of your bank deposits, earnings reports, investment bubbles, inflation and deflation, small stocks, speculation, and more!

Protect your financial future and change the way you view your investments forever!

Download Your Free Market Myths Exposed eBook.

Sincerely,

Alan


About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International

Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Get Your Free Report: How to Use Bar Patterns to Spot Trade Setups

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Greetings dear reader!

If you’re into trading the financial markets like I am, please read on.

Our friends at Elliott Wave International, the world’s largest market forecasting firm, have just updated their free report, How to Use Bar Patterns to Spot Trade Setups. With thousands of downloads, “Bar Patterns” has always been a huge hit with traders. But now it’s been packed with even more ways you can use common bar patterns to spot high-probability trading opportunities: 30 charts across 15 pages!

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Warmest regards,

Alan


About the Publisher, Elliott Wave InternationalFounded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private around the world.